A wonderful memory!

A wonderful memory!

Dear Mr. President, CSU Faculty and staffs:
San Jose, 2009
A week has been passed but a wonderful memory still remains there. First at all, I want to thank Mr. CSU President and all of CSU falcuty and staffs who have put extra miles in planning a very successful graduation ceremony last week. My family and I very happy, proud and so surprised by a very thoughtful preparation. Moreover, the warm, sweet and ardour from all of CSU members. Especially Ms. Sonya who give us a very nice tour and hearty welcome. Ms. Jessica, she is a great marketing director, and Mr. Larry Williams, a professor whom I have a great, friendly and sympathetic conversation. There are many another CSU members as a hero without name. Words could not express completely what I mean all. This is not only my impression and feelings but from others I have conversations with.
We all hope CSU will reach to the goals and remain as the number one provider in bringing high quality education and practical leaning programs to our generation and next generation to come, from every corner, every places of our Planet through a great technology we have available today. We wish CSU will always be a role model, a strong leader as a world higher learning organization to serve our great nation and the world around. We always pray CSU will accomplish that dream.

Yours very truly,

Kenneth Phan

A Message to Lovely Vietnamese Community:

San Jose, July 08

A Message to Lovely Vietnamese Community: In my heart and many other Vietnamese, we believe that Vietnamese will have a bright future, successfully involved in American politics. We see a clear path for young Vietnamese who are fascinating in a future in American Democratic Politics. The community believes that we will get damages if we vote a worthless candidate to represent for the community’s interests. We will not have best elected officials at government Agencies. The voice so far has not been heard. The community political strength has not been recognized by other minor and major communities in America. Any elections lies at the heart of the relationship between communities and issues. It is most crucial to have a clear plan and election strategy for the community on how to select a candidate and support the most qualified candidate to win. To be a successful politician who not only understand and study politic deeply but also have a vision, wide-knowledge and know how to take an opportunity determinedly and make a solid decision for political vision and influence in public services. It is not only to have a reputation, money and high education but also a politician needs to build their own solid coalition, earning their own root of support and have a best representative for community issues where they live and reach out community daily needs. We are as ingenious and hard-working Vietnamese who have been building a strong and united community in many years. Now is the time for us to have a campaigned organization to support Vietnamese candidates for local, state and federal positions. A VCO, (Vietnamese Campaigned Organization) not only to raise funds, to make best agenda for a selected candidate to develop. We should choose a qualified candidate who will represent for the Vietnamese community's rights and interests after a preliminary election process. People know that most campaign organization will not survive in any forms once the campaign ends. With the VCO where we will be active all year-long, within 365 days a year by preparing for the next elections, seeking resources, looking the ideal candidate for community representative. VCO will conduct the political Candidates debate, open Political Events and Seminars for freshmen politicians by inviting senior elected officials and political experts for lectures. Remembering, together we can stand strong to make a tremendous difference. It is the opportunity for Vietnamese to create a political foundation for succeeding generations to come.

Respectfully,

Kenneth Phan

USA with a past & present lesson!

Because of its established history, The United State of America has a society combined by many different cultures, languages, race, religious, classes and lifestyles. U.S. is at the cutting edge of leading technology and science society. There are differences in social activities between communities in U.S country such as religion, languages and custom. All in all, Americans take seriously individual liberty and self-made very much. Family, community, religion, or organization is secondary than privacy rights.
Firstly, it is a great nation where its acreage is the third largest one in the world and with over 300 million people descendant from full where differently in the World. United States of America is a most manifold society in the world. Even though Americans majority is accounted descendant from Europe, American-born, Asian American, African American and Hispanics population are growing by time. Presently, per year there is up to over one million migrant non resident come to subsistent United States of America and work for the living, and anticipation come to in the year 2050 only still white Americans is seized fewer than 50%. The United State of America also stands for a democracy and human rights nation where U.S. always promotes and encourages other countries for its movements. U.S. government system, to inception such as a experimenting about freedom and democracy in the year 1776, have already been testified it be ably unusual restoration and accommodation. Though often to classification as a democracies, United States might be defines accuracy such as a constitutionality federal republic system of government. It means “constitutionality "related to constitution fact that United States of America government is administration based upon ‘supreme law of the land’. The U.S. constitution is above Federal and State laws like U.S Statutory and U.S. Administration law. It is layout the framework and functions of U.S national government. In fact, it is a federal system with three branches where U.S congress (legislative) creates and passes laws through parliaments and president (executive) enforce and defenses those laws and judicial branch review and protect these laws. Each State have their own state laws and regulation but not vs. or unconstitutional federal laws. United States of America politics System chiefly owes to two biggest Democratic and Republican parties. United States of America constitution stipulate United States of America parliament has foreign trade control rights and decides on impost. However, owing to increase either impost reduction, import quota assignment, or overture international trade agreements is very sophisticated and affect benefit not only United States of America possession but also who of countries differ; therefore some responsibility in parliament has been managed by authorized executive agencies. To make sure federal agencies to perform commercial regulations correctly and beneficially, these agencies have a request to consult with congress regularly and have notification universally on mass Medias for a best of the general public's opinion. In addition, Congress has an authorization to control and carry out commerce laws and programs by budgetary distributing to Federal Agencies. Business policy is the basic factor of the diplomatic and economic policy the United States of America. Because the most important of the economy policy reflects to the deep and wide nation interests so U.S fed government have strongly influences to national or international businesses.
The United State of America is a greatest economy nation in the last many decades and still remains its title for next many years to come. During 1907s to present, U.S. economy has been experienced in up and down periods but it is still a strong and leading economy in the globe. Most historical memory was an U.S. great depression economy in 1929 till late 1930 where were carried along stock market crash, banking collapse and unemployment rate has been soar at 19.7% followed. According to Allen, Frederick Lewis (1940), “Between 1930 and 1939 U.S. unemployment averaged 18.2%. The economy's output of goods and services (gross national product) declined 30 percent between 1929 and 1933 and recovered to the 1929 level only in 1939.” Another history lesson is the great commodities depression among 1980 to 2000, generally recession in commodity prices. In addition, the initial report by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), declare a recession that lasted from March 2001 to November 2001, as real gross domestic product dropped during the period by 0.2 percent total from the fourth quarter of 2000. During president Bill Clinton Administration, 1990s, U.S economy was very strongly growing and beginning slower in the early 2000s and tipped into a recession in 2001. After this light recession in early year 2001, U.S economy was started to re-grow with an averaged peed is 2.9 % yearly from 2002 to 2006. Meanwhile, inflation about prices, rate of unemployment and interest rates are still sustained in low relative level. By many potential and weight economy policies and measures, The U.S. economy is still remains its position in highly competing power, largest quantitative production and there is affected range to most intensive in the world. According to non-profit board about competition, in stage from 1995 to year 2005, direct contributing U.S growth of global economy degree tri-level portion. In stage from 1983 to 2004, United States's importation increase giddiness and make up about 20% in export boost level riches is cosmopolitan. However, U.S economy is affected from many other dynamical economies nowadays. At present, U.S still has to face with both challenges comes from indoor and aboard. The U.S housing market has been downturn reflect the bubble markets last many years. Moreover, Financial Industry such as sub-prime mortgage has been crisis, oil demand is at high and jobless is increasing in time in which gives a warning to a possible recession. There are a few warnings to prove that global economy will change more scientifically and create huge impact to the U.S economy balance in coming years. Developing nations have been growth faster last years and seizes United States of America's more and more mickle portion among goods is exported, 32.8% in 1985 while in 2006, this proportion is 47%. Developing nations also seize 34.5% United State’s importations in 1985 and 54.7% in 2006. In 2007, US total, all counties trade is $3.495 trillion, import rose 5.9 % to a record $2.333 trillion while exports grew12.2 % to a record $1.162 trillion. The top US leading trading partners are Canada, Mexico, China, Japan, UK and Brazil is at 13 ranking.
U.S federal Government has an important role in creation jobs and promoting economic
development and makes sure the economic inflation and unemployment rates low as
possible and keep the common price level and a burden of taxation is manageable
acquired. President and Congress will have control budget expenditure and tax
spending. In the United States, we have Federal Reserve System where it runs
and a control by Board of Governors is the Central Banking system of U.S. It has been
called a short name as “Fed”. It is an organization to include a number of State’s
momentousness and private institutions. Nowadays, most of Central Banks in the world
has more than mains bi-functional number: administer currency policy and assure
stabilization and secure give trade bank in particular and some portion to system is
national finance system. U.S Central Bank’ roles are to control, balance and regulate the
supply of money in the U.S economy. They maintain fund resources at a Federal Reserve
Banks to play a major role in the US banking system for demand and supply at private
banks. Fed will supervise all of U.S banking system. Summarily, in U.S. ‘banking
system, liquidity inter-bank offer rates LIBOR that most private institutions borrowed to
manage often flap in Fed Funds Rate and Discount Rate are two policy tools to monitor.
The most important body of Fed Reserve System is Federal Open market Committee
(FOMC) where responsibly research and propose currency policy to sustain the
stabilization of the prices and boost the economy. First, it is important to realize that all
countries experience the relationship of trading and investment with each other. U.S.
economy is a biggest international trading-partner to most countries therefore the U.S
economy’ growth and declines always have a huge impact to the world economy. It has
been affected not only currency exchanges and interest rates systems of each regimes but
it has been also affected by U.S Discount and Federal Funds Rates where influenced
and regulated by US Federal Reserve Bank. A dictum sentence of economists: “when
Uncle Sam splashes blow-off, the entire world gets cold”
During passed centuries, U.S. international trade and economic policies have been
significant changes to reply the changes from aboard. U.S GDP ranking rate in 2007 is
still remains first, reach $13.84 trillion, with less than five percent world populations.
Only possession GDP is a state of California reaches $1.5 trillion in 2007, transcended
GDP of all of countries, only subtract 8 countries, entering that year. It is also firstly rate
in import turnover with over $2 .2 trillion, three times larger than Germany, a second
place. About export is second place, reaches 1.1 trillion, only after Germany. U.S
dominated many export markets but according to forecast, China will outmarch U.S in
2008 about services export with $422 billion dollars. US has trade deficit highest rate
since post war period with $847 billion in 2007, outgrows so many times than any other
countries. This reflects Americans saving less than spending compares Europe and Japan.
The most conflict issue since 1985 to present is the trade deficit with China in goods that
will approach $256.3 billion in 2007, dramatically up from last year's record of $232.5
billion. US exports to China reach $65.2 billion and imports are at $321.5 billion in 2007. US exports to Japan reaches $ 62.7 and imports 145.6 billion in 2007. US exports to Brazil reaches $24.6 billion and imports $25.6 billion in 2007. US’s trade deficit to Japan is only $82.7 billion in 2007 compared to China $ 256.3 billion in 2007 and Brazil is far less than China and Japan, at $1 billion or 0.4% in 2007.Between US and Brazil is at good stage to keep a lowest trade deficit since last two years. Most of the US leading industries in international trade, export and import are advanced technologies equipments, steel, automobiles, and aerospace, and telecommunication, chemical and other consumer goods. USA reaches $1.14 trillion in export and $1.96 trillion import in 2007. Their key trading partners are Canada 21.4%, Mexico 11.7%, China 5.6%, Japan 5.4%, UK 4.3%, and Germany 4.3%. Most of the USA exports-commodities are agricultural products (soybeans, fruit and corn); industrial supplies and capital goods reach 49%. In the imports-commodities are most of industrial supplies with 32.9% (crude oil 8.2%) and consumer goods as 31.8%.
The United States of America economy is a biggest trading partner to most countries therefore the US economy growth and declines always have a huge impact to the World economy. It has been affected not only currency exchanges rate used and interest rates system of each regimes but it has been also affected by U.S Discount and Federal Funds rates where be influenced and regulated by US Central Banks. US has two exchange rate regimes to operate its exchange currency market since 1958 to 1973, US has applied fixed exchange rate regime that called Bretton Woods system and at the middle of the year 1973 US policy has been toward to flexible exchange rate regime. According to the Sanjay Ramchander, “The collapse of Bretton Woods or the fixed exchange rate system in 1973, along with the coinciding growth in global trade, and greater mobility of capital have all contributed to an increase in exchange rate volatility. Concerns about exchange rate levels and volatility have prompted central banks to actively intervene in foreign currency markets from time to time. “(P-1) The US Central Bank is called Federal Reserves system where it is has full power to monitor and regulate the domestic monies supply and has an effective credit policies tool that help to run the national financial market. It also monitors the foreign lending and direct investment and banking in US territory. The Fed will directly keep in touch with other Central Banks has strong influences in the US monetary and fiscal policies. Since 1934, US dollar was starting to lost it value and less than 60% content of gold therefore it effects a rising price of gold and till late of 1971s the convertibility of dollar to gold has been suspended for opening the new chapter of exchange rate regime in US. The US currency has a big change its value since 1971s, increasing the gold price 8.57% to US $38.00 per fine ounce. US dollar has been dominated World exchange markets for many decades. Because US dollar is very popular and most trust paper in circulation therefore it becomes the most reserve currency for another nation in the World today after gold. The US dollar today has other very competitive currencies such as Japanese money (Yen), German (Mark), and new one, Euro in which US has a major change in foreign exchange policy such as an exchange rate will be determined in the demand and supplies of monies; no more minimum requirement for a full of gold content and foreign exchange for the national currency in the mid 1978s. Presently, The US Federal Reserve still keeps interest rate at low point through end of this year. It is might be a good chance for foreign investors to own more US‘s s assets than any other time. US notes has been stored as reserves by many nations and dominated by many markets. In fact, most of the currency exchange activities today are often under the terms of US dollar. US Dollar and other major currency as Japan and Europe have been seizing about 60% of all currency exchange transaction on the World.
At present, US economy faces a series problems, trade deficit reaching up 5.7% to $62.0 billion in July 2008 compared with $58.8 billion in June 2008. This is a highest mark in the last 16 months. The housing market has been crisis since 2005, following the jobless rate was rising up 6.1% in August 2008 which is the highest in 10 years. The financial industry in general, as lending and mortgages has been come to a crisis to lead to the failure of Fannies and Freddie and other Banks. This issue is remaining unclear evidence when it could be coming to the end. Although last couple weeks oil price was go down a little at $102.58 per barrel compared $150 in June 2008 but its high demand is still there, not only in US but on the World. All of these elements are being continued to drag down US economy. The US GDP in the first six month of year 2008 indicates the slowdown of the economy. Moreover, the inflation keep move slowly up, even the economy growth been declined. This is important indicator of whole economy need to be control as mush as. In the next expectation for U.S Economy’s growth would take another 2 or 3 years, to reach over $15 trillion upon the average rate of GDP averaged growth at 3.0 percent. The US productivity will increase rapidly yearly and labor force is projected to reach 165 million in the next 10 years. Beside the real Export expects to grow stronger than import reflects the government ‘effort to shrink its trade deficit. U.S has an average population increase less than 1.1% and 1.2% for employment growth.
In general, this economy also has to face ongoing challenges for a long-dated continuous. Although many Americans has assurance in economic field and a number of accumulators to so many belongings, still a amounts is considerable such as single mom families has to live under poverty, healthcare and education costs rises up every time. However the poverty is just about 12% in 2004, also outgrow collating with so many other countries. Those continuous economic fluctuations went through American history to the modern period. US still absolutely abide by some basic rules in its own pavilion of economic activity. The firstly most important thing is to sustain a “market economy”. The United States remains its economic theory and considers all in all best function how and when to decide production and make a value of products in order to pass interchange action of millions independent buyer and sellers over the globe. This is a real economic interest of a nation, not benefit by government or personally influences. Americans believe that in an open market system, prices almost reflect real value of its merchandise, and therefore it is an optimal instruction that gives producers what economic demands for production is necessary. There is another angle of view of new progressed economies as China, India, Russian, and Brazil have loftiness growth rating, even had where is too hot.
Inflation at these countries also has been increasing loftiness because of expend accentuation. These economies above are being to seize first position about world retail and services trading level. After a long period of time to have a better national saving and re-contribution its capital in investments and developments, People in these nations has to confront a higher demand for living, “more wealthy equal more spending”. This is a cause for World’s today increased inflation rate. The high inflation from these economies is not a brake for keeping their governments from imports restrictions. Therefore the devaluation of US dollar in last couple weeks will help US exports to enter these nation markets in the near future in which to create more jobs for our nation economy and hopefully this scenario can be final cause give securities index to United States economy during who pretty soon , over here retrieve world-wide.
World GDP has been seized by 25% from US GDP so if there are any economic and political varies in the United States can lead to World Economy caution.
While I am writing this paper, the US financial industry was too deep in problem, most of the biggest lending corporations have to fight to survive in this extremely difficult time. This crisis has been spilled over more broadly on other areas, in both national and international. The most crises have been occurred in the modern time after the great depression in 1930s and Asia financial one during 1990s. Many predict and expects from the efforts of federal government and US Central Bank, by lower the fed funds rate and money supply-pumping. If the applying the lower fed funds rate tool then will boost the rising inflation but if not then keep the slow economy goes nowhere. It does not mean World-wide economy will be in depression but at least will leads to the slowdown growth in many other economies in the following months. Firstly, it is clearly that the US consumer goods spending will be decreasing, following the World’s GDP attenuation. The second matter is the weaker US dollar currency will affect to countries depending on the US market. If the Federal Reserve continues to cut interest rates to stimulate its economic market, but it may be a cause to devaluate its currency to other Euro, Japan and China dollars to create a trigger United State’s export but again it be nightmare with respect to exporters Germany, Japan and Korea, and China where these economies have deeply depend into US market high-rolling export. Third, US is not only nation been faced with the bubble housing and financial crisis markets in the last years. This phenomenon also has been occurred at countries from Asia to Europe because globalization has become a reality in the past decades. More and more we are moving towards connection in one giant, global economy-one market. World also has been facing with the imbalance of population growth among developed countries like US, Japan and developing countries as China and Brazil. As regards to the real data and statistics, it showed that most of poor economies as undeveloped and developing countries have a higher country risk, higher inflation, higher dependence on national natural resources, higher population lives under poverty line and higher GDP economic growth but have a lower GDP per capita, lower life expectation at birth, lower productivity, less technology and educational system than rich or developed countries.
Finally, the most important key is now for saving the downturns of the World and US economies by know how to create and to remain a credible and healthy investment environment in which most of investors are waiting for it. The trusty has been detracted since last many corruptions. The restoration of public’s trust in business activity is a must immediately. Fiduciary crisis is under liquidity datum level caused stating buckled up and credit at Wall Street. This status also was blazing all over other financial markets in the World. Realizing that it is a flawless of domino economic theory in which national economies have been drawing along into a circle of it. This also another past decade experienced lesson likes Japan ones in 1990s. US need not only its economic and financial, fiscal reforms but US also need aboard economic partners to contribute their parts in saving US economy. US administration and economists have to realize it as a huge hole in financial crisis to find decisive solution for solving. This is not a simple issue as one or just two failure- corporations but a reflection to the whole agitated financial industry, the failure of the monetary and fiscal policies. US Central Banks itself were in difficulties could save World Economy from economic depression status’s negative impacts in the America. Presently, the capability of US Central Bank in using currency and interest rate tool to stimulate its economy is retrenched than before. World has to find best equation that can solve a thorny problem with the two answers; rising inflation and slow economic growth. The World and US’s inflation is still remains as an unsolved math.

BraxiL in the last two decades!

Introduction

Brazil is considering as developing country. Beside, we have fifteen European countries to be one power economy community in Europe. In generally, world economy, from east to west, has been changed rapidly in many ways as in good and bad, growth and slow last decades. First at all, it should tell the US economy is the top ranking of the World Economy. Its effects not only to Europe, Asia and Africa but South America like Brazil and other regions or group of nation as ASEAN, EU and BRIC economies (India, China, Brazil, and Russia). , Brazil is another economic growth competitor to the other economies in the World but it is appearing in South America. Its acreage is the fifth large nation in the area and the population reaches 191,908 million in 2007 or 1.3 % population growth. Brazil boundaries has been faced to the east by Atlantic Ocean and other nations as Argentina, Bolivia, Colombia…The climate here is mostly tropical but more heat in south side. Brazil has a longer history than USA or Japan. Its Colonial Era Period is from 1500s to 1822s therefore Brazil has been absorbed and obtained highly stratified society from the colonial system. Brazil was a Portuguese’s colony in the past until in the year 1822 when this country becomes an independence nation. Brazil is only country in South America to be heavy in inheriting languages and cultural from Portuguese. Even Brazil culture has been affected by these elements above but Portuguese culture is only more affection for Brazilian's close relationship event in colony episode with this empire. Portuguese is carried to here language, catholicity and colonial architecture types. There are other aspects has been contributing to Brazilian culture from Eurasia, South-American-born aboriginal and helot from Africa. In fact, Brazil could be viewed as a multicultural and multiracial society. Nowadays Brazil political system is as Federal Republic Charter under its federal constitution. It has Federal, State and City governments and its political system has three legislative, executives and judicial branches like US government. One of its republic’ politics martinet is multiparty system as encouraging and warranty about free politics. At present there are 15 big and small political parties joining in Brazil Congress. Brazil is the first leading nation about politics and economy in the South America region. However, Brazil still remains some difficult issues as unstableness in economic field and society that preventing Brazil to become an influential World power. Brazil also was facing an unstable political issue in 1964. In the first few years after main military intervention of its political issue, Brazil continues to grow fast its economy by having an economic reform and new polices. But a few years later, that Brazil has faced with a very difficult time by failing to follow these reforms. Government has faced a high national debt from foreign countries. Its government became a dictatorial system in that year. It took 15 years later for Brazil to begin rebuild its democracy and re-fix whole worst economy with an inflation reaching 25% high in 1985. In 1985, a new government was birth under a leading of President Fernando Henrique Cardoso. He has put on his platform for renew whole economic system and the first result his government been collected by preventing financial crisis in 1998. He also was pursuing the political reform following years. The most arduous problems still remains in society that is inequality in income among citizens as well as many another lancination social matters. Last few years, Brazil has resulted in resolving the “population living below poverty line.” and creating more jobs, reducing dependence on foreign oil. Brazil is another economy dragon has been growing steadily with an average GDP 4.5% every year since 2003 to 2007. The last year is at $1.836 trillion or 5.4 % and GDP per capital is to reach $9,700 in 2007 to become the largest and strongest economy in South America. In 2007, Brazil is considered as a World’ tenth largest economy for exchange rate market and it has a deep and wide market with population closed 200 million. Brazil is a premier economy in the Latin American. This is potential economy market not only for US, China but other great investment partners. With per capita income is above fair-to-middling in the World. At present, Brazil has a huge work force resource and specializing in mining, agriculture products… Its economic growth passes away overcome other economies in the region. Nowadays, Brazil opens its door wider to the global economy. Their main exporting commodities are transport equipments, iron ore, soybean, coffee, autos and footwear. Their export key partners are US 14.2%, China 9.2% Argentina 8.3%, Germany 4.4%, Japan. Most of their imports-commodities are machinery, electrical and transport equipments, chemical, oil, automotive parts and electronic merchandises. Their largest import partners are US with 20%, China 8.9% and Japan 4.6% in 2007. The trade among nations, Brazil-China reaches $2.1 trillion in 2007 compared with $1.76 trillion in 2006 or 20% per year averaged increasing.

Brazil is Latin American regional, headmost country about politics and economy. During world post-war word stage II to 1990s, most of Brazil administrations have concentrated in economic development by opening its market to the globe and establishing an independent diplomatic policy. Last few years, Brazilian has the speed increase not only with its South America neighbors but European, North America and Asia, additionally play essential in United Nation’s mission’s role. As an agricultural attribute is in good progress and fine industrial development both production and services, Brazil economy has surpassed other ones in the same region to become the better involved and expanded fields to the international market. In fact, Brazil nation is in rich natural resources, a leading about who produce cane-sugar, coffee, and a country where there is most developed ground-ranched branch, to make breeding a main activity. Brazil also has been absorbing a high technological science in many produced fields and researches from aboard. An agriculture make up 9% GDP, key product is cotton coffee, bergamot soybean, maize cane-sugar, fat-stock meat cocoa, hulled rice… Industry seizes aluminums 32% GDP, product premier that be steel, transport equipment, electrical consumer products and Services is seizing about 59% total of nation GDP.
The firstly Brazil currency was called “Cruzeiro” where it’s established by Brazil government and IMF in early 1942. Most of its exchange rate system and monetary policy has been directly control and regulate by the National Monetary Council. Brazil has applied limited flexible exchange rate regime in the late 1968. At that time US dollar is dominated currency in the World markets and because US dollar floating every time therefore Brazil’s Currency always keep closed its exchange rate relationship to the US currency. Beginning 1971s, US dollar was starting lost its value, this is cause for the “Cruzerio” Brazil currency‘s devaluation in terms of gold. The gold content of Brazil currency was also reducing since the US currency has a heavy devaluation in the 1973s. From 1942 to 1990, Brazil has eight times to change its currency and during its periods, it keeps losing the valuation till 1988, The Central Bank has required any major exchanges or payments should be pay out by gold. After few times to change its national currency and lost the currency valuation, the Brazil government has used a new exchange rate system that upon on the bands where the Band was set at Brazil real (R) R$0.98 per US. Dollar. This exchange rate system has been changing rapidly by time and its supply and demand. In fact, the flexible exchange rate regime has been used by Brazil Government since 1990 under the limited intervention from its government. This regime has been combined with the Bands where it’s controlling the money creation. Nowadays, Brazil has not change much its exchange rate system since the independently flexible regime was applied for its currency exchange in 1999s.

Conclusion

At present, Brazil average GDP is reaching 4.0% yearly from 2003 to 2007. The total consumer goods spending rising up at 3.8% annually, record to the $1.410 trillion in the year 2007 to $3.300 trillion in 2030, with an average rate of increasing and a very healthy condition of its growth, its poverty is decreasing in years to come. Many other World economists also acknowledged that Brazil economy is in balance staging of economic development, stabilization and indestructibility. It has also been recognized as a potential nation in South America about oil, ethanol, and diesel bioscience energy. In additional, Brazil has a progression in Automobile industry, surpassed France to become the sixth largest industry in the World, records at 1.69 million cars- export in the first six months of the year 2008. Although Japan was remains as World’s largest automobile industry with 6.06 million car-producing, China 5.2 million and US 4.89 million. Brazil is a potential market in the BRIC group beside China, Russia and India with the attracted capital investment of US technology corporations. It is just in August, Brazil import turnover of $17.4 billion, increasing 51% compared 2% higher than in the same last year period. This is a cause for its decreased exports at 38.4% than corresponding period of last year.
Brazil country is reached at 192 million people in 2007 to be the fifth largest nation with population, less than 2/3 United States population, and 1/6 China population where is a nation along with the prospective market in the long run and technological market but the instability of Brazil at both economic and political issues in the past were shading its growth opportunities. Even if Brazil economy has potential growth, large size and important economy but its problems still exist like corruption, analphabetic and poverty that holdbacks the big development from Brazil to become a developed nation. Brazil still has a long way to reform its whole economic and political systems, needing clear and opening policies in which directs this nation in the next level.

Japan in the past, present and future!

Introduction

Social, Political and Economy systems
Japan country is like an arc archipelago next to East side of European and Northwest Asia continent, include island chain between the North Pacific Ocean and the Sea of Japan, east of the Korean Peninsula. Japan is as an island country, have running total acreage is 377, 834 square kilometers. Its total land is likely an arched skiff where it lies along way to the near of east of Asiatic continent with an length 3,800 milestones, from 20 parallel of latitude degrees boreal that with reversions Antarctic is Okinawa, to 45 parallel of latitude degrees are boreal with same upper part the reversion Hokkaido. This terrain are being compared the length from Miami, United States tracing up to end of Montréal area of Canada. Japan has more than 3, 900 islets and 4 big reversions.
There four main islands Hokkaido, Honsnhu, Kyushu, Okinawa where the climate is so non-thermal and the weather is always dry with four different seasons during a year. Japan is named as a Sunrise country where it’s established has manifold culture. A country has sharply young flooded cheery-blossom with girls winsomely in ministry KIMOTO. It also has a special paper folding art ORIGAM tradition, palm purified that slick in tea art laws is original, floral arrangement art IKEBANA. Japan society has strokes special about culture dealt. Japanese often incline salutation by Person staf down and lowering degree Hinge Social standing of both people. This is an essential omen to reveal respect such as another custom stroke is swap. A Department of Education including science culture, sports and technology is a highest agency to manage Japan’s culture. Japan’ culture have functions and its possession role in its society nowadays, play wherewith element essential role. Japan also promotes its language to the World as a ways and means to expanding its global business. In addition, for number of non-resident learns Japanese in Japan and in the World is increasing, manifold programs and actions research also under way who is to stimulating Japanese Education. Japanese Constitution has been expressed that “No War” in which Japanese swear to chase peaceful strategy since 1946 publicly. Japanese Congress is the highest legislature branch with 512 House of Representatives and 252 senators. House of representatives has 4-years term and Senator with 6-year term. Japan is identical country about people and cultural decoction. People without Japan origination make up more than 1% only in 2002. The very quickly of progression in economic field is a cause for Japanese social changes in 1990s and 2000s from large member-family to small family with parents and children, rates drop from 44% in 1995 to 13.7% in 2000. Family’s members have been limited in each family unit, and the home residence is just enough for a few people for living.
Japan is considering as number two power country in the World Economy. After World War II Japan is a capitalistic nation, like the US. However, because of cultural differences, the resulting economic activity appears far different than US. The United State of America has privatized most of the Government run institutions. This significantly lowered the cost of running their government. On top of these, there were great restrictions of Japan's rebuilding their military - again an incredible boom for the economy. The Japanese economy suffered a crisis in the 1990's and has kept it's head above water why they continue to try to find a way of modernizing, once more, without losing either social cohesion or historical distinctiveness. It got the usual quasi-capitalistic mix with government support for advanced industries. An integrated system has been applied in Japan Economy for decades by Japanese economists that accentuate the relationship between its currency, goods and people for a long-term. There is a close connection among banking for money, companies for goods. Japan Economy has earned a great respect for its economic efficiency.
Government Role in the Economy, International Trade, Import and Export
According to Ming Wan, (1998)” Japan is often seen as a power that knows how to achieve economic success but does not know what to do in foreign policy.” (p-2) and “Japan is often considered a one-dimensional power. Different from the United States, which possesses a wide range of resources, Japan’s main instrument of foreign policy is economic power.”(p-3). This is a good example for undeveloped and developing economy nations to study the impacts and limitations of economic leverage.
As United State of America is supper economy nation in North America continent then Japan is another one in Asia, considering a strong work ethic with a high technology industrial nation but a very lower budget for its defense business. Japan is namely second place in technological powerful economy and a second largest GDP, reaches $4.3 trillion in 2007, about 2.7% GDP growth after US. After World War II Japan has been supported and influenced by U.S. policies, They all focus on economic growth, the most strongest market been invading by Japan Auto industry, the GDP has been reached 10 percent annually growth for the three decades. It was successfully in energy saving policy therefore technological electronics products and automobiles become very competitive internationally. This is a successful story in business forever to study. Japan Economy is beginning slower in 1990s with the average 1.7 % after the effects of financial crisis and assets price bubble, compared other industrial nations like Germany and USA. Real GDP grew as an average 1.5% annually from 1991 to 1999 comparing to growth in 1980s of about 4% per year. In the early 2001, the Japan government has economic reform in the relying of slow demand from US, and other Asia economies. From 2003 to 2007, its economic growth in GDP average 2.0 annually, under the pressures from other economic dragons, Japan as U.S still remains as a major economic powering the globe with among World’s largest and technological advance producers of automobiles and high tech merchandises and other electronic equipments. Japanese government make its efforts to continue the economy recovery yearly with a lower unemployment rate from 5.3% in 2003 to 4 % in 2007, lower population growth rate, and highest gross national savings with an average 27% yearly from 2003 to 2007 compared to US. 13%, an average for its national saving and U.S unemployment average rate 5.2 % yearly from 2003 to 2007.
Unlikely USA and China, Japan also has an efficient energy reform, by diversify its energy resources, lowering its dependence on imported oil from 75% in 1970s to 57% at present and having high technologies for automobiles with less gasoline driver and new introduction of Hybrid vehicles. It has a current account balance, $212.8 billion in 2007 comparing to U.S negative balance, -$738.6 billion, China $360.7 billion and Brazil 3.5 billion .Japan focus on export commodities such as transport equipments, motor vehicles, semiconductors and other high tech electronics. Their key partners for trade are USA with 20,4 %, China 15.3% South Korea 7.6 %, Taiwan 6.3 % and Hong Kong 5.4%. Although Government executes a series of reforms and its effort to revise economic growth but there are little results for its success.
Exchange Rate System and Flawless Policies
In fact, the Japan productivity is lower 30 percent than American labors. Meanwhile, Japan industrial fields have faced a lot of competitions from China in product quality and quantity and competitive price. Beside Japanese economy has to paid with a high cost of energy and a rise on cost of goods transportation in which will still gone on to affected negative exchange rate. Not like US Federal Reserve, most of the Japanese financial activities has been under the monitor and administrated by the Japanese Ministry of Finance. The Japanese government directly has been controlled all foreign investment and trading before 1949s. There are also a multiple exchange rates at that time and it has been run under the market economic policy. In the mid 1949 Japan decide to switch its plural exchange rate regime to a single exchange rate regime. This change continues its activity until 1960s under that progressed trade liberation. From 1960 to 1971 Japan has applied fixed exchange rate regime to rely US dollar but in the early 1971 Japanese government was beginning use the flexible exchange rate regime to allow its currency (Yen) to be floated above its fluctuation ceiling and an effective rate. In that time, the US dollar has lost its value and continuing devaluation, so the main cause to push Japan’ establishing and controlling exchange rates under the flexible exchange rate system as a basis. This is an open door for the freely floating of the effective rate of Japan currency. Japan begins to determine the exchange rate upon the supply and demand conditions. Likely responsibilities as US Federal Reserve, Ministry of Japanese Finance and authorized Central banks will intervene in the currency market when its currency has been fluctuated disorderly. At present, Japan flexible exchange rate regime has not been changed much lately.
The current economy and the outlook for the next many years to come
Japan, although population density is big, par excellence live in metropolitan area but Japans has a loftiness standard of living. Japan industry is at the second ranking in the world, although it has been considered as a very poor country about natural resources. Most of productions are being depended on imported material, as 90% of energy from foreign imported oil. Japanese economically accomplishments are in centralized of invented production phyla. At present, The Japanese overall economy has not been changing much upon the national real GDP in 2007 and 2008 at 2.1%. The inflation has also keep low increasing at 2.0% in August 2008. The Japanese export is heading slowing down in June 2008 at 1.7% while import of record level at 16.2% rises, by impacts from falling World economy, the American financial crisis and the high demand oil and price that affected disadvantageous to this power of Asiatic most largest economy. Japanese trade surplus has also been decreased in June 2008 $1.28 billion or 89% in the same period of the last year, 2007. According to the BBC news, “Japan's trade surplus shrank by more than expected in July, due to weaker US demand and an increase in oil imports. The surplus fell to 91.15bn yen ($830.5m; £444.2m), down 86.6% from the same period a year earlier.” (P-1) The difference among US, China, Brazil are facing with a higher inflation than Japan has a lowest inflation of status where Japanese and its enterprises at this sunrise country are waiting inflation to come back, with more than a decade under the sustained deflation. Many past years, Japanese economy was in average at 1.0% deflation because Japanese consumers are limited in spending of automobile, consumed goods and so on but more on saving plans and home cash reserves. Moreover, the high cost of energy along with the rising expenditure prices to cut back their expenses to cause Japan‘s GDP and CPI index to increase negligible. Firstly, it should stimulate its economy by spending packages where Japan will always hope inflation index has boost omen diligently. Secondly, to remains as the competitive and largest economy ranking in Asia, Japan should consider a labor reform by building a powerful manpower resource with a high labor skill and knowledge to rely the better productivity. Japan can also open their door for foreign labors. Looking at US economy’s productivity still remains as highest level. Although Japan should be considered as good stage as maintaining its industrial base and have a better in national saving plan and a huge capital resources and reserves those can continues to show its strong economic outlook. But Japan also should pay attention to its declines in the population growth that is a threat to the long term rapid economic growth. In additional, the higher percentage rate in elders than younger generation will give a pressure on the pension system and given short on its workforce.
According to the Yuichi,”The life expectancy in Japan in the longest in the world. In 1995, average life expectancy at birth was 76 years for male and 82 years for females.”(P-3)

Great Day for America!

In the heart of millions americans today, some feel very upset and others are very happy about our historic presidential election. But there is one thing, we all must agree and proud of the wonderful nation that we are living in and working under a great constitution " All men are created equal." This day will go down in American history. We are one nation,we must put our differences aside and together we will rebuild our nation. No matter what happended today and in the past, we must look forward to the future of our next gennerations. We are facing a series of challegenings ahead: economic crisis, education, healthcare, security, beyond those we also need to restore the American reputation all over the World as well as to bring a fresh air and confidence back to Americans.
Again, we wish all the best to our new president and administration for the comming days.

Discount Fund and Federal Funds Rates

Body

First, it is important to realize that all countries experience the relationship of trading and investment with each other. U.S. economy is a biggest trading-partner to most countries therefore the U.S economy’ growth and declines always have a huge impact to the world economy. It has been affected not only currency exchanges and interest rates systems of each regimes but it have been also affected by U.S Discount and Federal Funds Rates where influenced and regulated by US Federal Reserve Bank. Overall, this paper will dig a little deeper in U.S. Discount and Fed Fund Rates. Where do they come from and how can they affect to US economy and world Economy.
According to the Fed Purposes & Functions (2005), “The Federal Reserve System is the
Central Bank of the United States. It was founded by Congress in 1913 to provide the
nation with a safer, more flexible, and more stable monetary and financial system. Over
the years, its role in banking and the economy has expanded. (p.3)
To understand the federal funds rate is the interest rate charged by banks when they loan each other by overnight. This funds rate vacillates upon to the supply and demand and would not under by Fed directed control, but strongly influenced by the Federal Reserve Action. The Discount rate is interest rate charged by the Federal Reserve when Fed Fund been released or/and borrow by other banks at overnight. This discount rate is under Fed control directly. Federal Fund Rates is always higher than the discount rate. Generally, only large banks borrow directly from the Fed then the Discount Rate is getting a lower discount rate from Federal Reserve so these big banks would be benefited from it.
“The Federal Reserve controls the three tools of monetary policy--open market operations, the discount rate, and reserve requirements. The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System is responsible for the discount rate and reserve requirements, and the Federal Open Market Committee is responsible for open market operations. Using the three tools, the Federal Reserve influences the demand for, and supply of, balances that depository institutions hold at Federal Reserve Banks and in this way alters the federal funds rate. The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.”(2005) Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Firstly, we should realize that most developed countries have a Central Banks like Asia Central Bank, European Central Bank in which control certain kind of short term interest rates. This short-term rate as fed fund rates will create an impact to related markets as bond, stock, mortgage and others interest rates. In the United States, we have Federal Reserve System where it run and control by Board of Governors is the Central Banking system of U.S. It has been called a short name as “Fed”. It is an organization to include a number of State’s momentousness and private institutions. Grant governor is headquarters’ of Federal Reserve and place headquarters at Washington, D.C. grant governor embody seven appointive governors by president and been passed by United States of American Congress. Within a system included twelve Federal Reserve Banks and twenty five branch office covers United States of America manor under governor Department’s direct behest. These banks are embodied: Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, Saint Louis, Minneapolis, Kansas city, Dallas and Evened Francisco.
“The most powerful weapon in the Fed’s arsenal is the ability to influence the direction of interest rates. When interest rates are low, capital is easier to acquire. This can spur economic development because, human nature being what it is, the more cash you have available, the more you are likely to pay for something you want – whether it is a car or that new plasma screen television. Left unchecked, however, and the result is “too much money chasing too few goods,” as the saying goes. This leads to inflation as businesses realize they can charge higher prices for their goods and services.”(2005) Joshua Kennon
Nowadays, most of Central Banks in the world has more than mains bi-functional number: administer currency policy and assure stabilization and secure give trade bank in particular and some portion to system is national finance system. U.S Central Bank’ roles are to control, balance and regulate the supply of money in the U.S economy. They maintain fund resources at a Federal Reserve Banks to play a major role in the US banking system for demand and supply at private banks. In generally, Department’s common task Governor that be propose currency policies, research parse data economically at home and a aboard. Fed will supervise all of U.S
banking system. Summarily, in U.S. ‘banking system, liquidity inter-bank offer rates
LIBOR that most private institutions borrowed to manage often flap in Fed Funds Rate
and Discount Rate is two policy tools to monitor. Presently at about 40% private
institutions and trade banks are Fed’ members, all of national banks, uniformization is
member. Banks have a support and patronage from government to participate if enough
of a number of some conditions Associates. According to Lui (2008),”The Treasury and
the Fed have closely coordinated their foreign exchange operations since early 1962,
when the Federal Reserve commenced such operations at the request of the
Treasury.”(p.1). The most important body of Fed Reserve System is Federal Open market
Committee (FOMC) where responsibly research and propose currency policy to sustain
the stabilization of the prices and boost the economy. The voting member (totally that
add 12) of the 7 governors FOMC embodied the governor Department, include president
of New York Fed Bank, other four Chairman’s of Fed banks have a rotation to voting
rights Fed Chairman granted a meeting. FOMC reunites about eight times per year at
Washington, D.C. for once per a half months average to consult together about the U.S of
economic situation and select measures currency policy is likely for ever episode. There
are also three main boards: Federal Advisory Council, Consumer Advisory Council, and
Thrift Institution Advisory Council. With a perfectly form of FED and a facility,
capacity at a plenty remain their services like a normal bank and provide it to its clients,
who tell intelligibility, Fed’s clients are another banks in the area to make sure US
Banking System performances an unification and guarantee, payment system’s safety.
For example, whenever client receives money odder past money or electronically usual
then a Fed will implement banks middle remittance works together. One of the biggest
client of Fed is U.S. government. Like you there is a bank account in bank, US treasure
also has a suite bank account in Fed Bank. All government taxation and revenue sources
and spending is under controlled from this account. In additional, Fed bank sells and
buys treasury Bills, Notes, and Bonds according to counter-bid modality in open market.
Fed also has hard cash and task note issue. In fact, The Treasure produced monetary but
Fed directly in circulation its money supply to all banking system. Fed is also
responsibility to monitor and control fiat money’s corrupt status and eviction, destruction and replacement pay extra dilacerations. Moreover, Fed responsibility tune and supervise action of allover US, banking activities in this nation, this means apply to all foreign going banks and international banks are actives in this US territory. One more little task of Fed is quota canon investors are borrow via intermediary Agencies to obtain more shares, this quota is fifty percent, means that people invested is buyable number of share doubles one hand sum of money, moiety because of borrow intermediary Agencies possession. Lui (2008) found that “The reality is that the Fed has a long tradition in supporting the lead of the Treasury in intervening on the exchange value of the dollar, albeit not always to keep the dollar strong.” (P.1) Why these fund rates and U.S Central Bank’ role is important to U.S economy and world economy, all of their decision makings and actions are have a range affected deeply and broad that not only give U.S territory economy personally but also affect no-home come to cosmopolitan possession economy. Just saying in a comprehensiveness way, United States of America currency and monetary policies related to resolutions and action of Fed with a view to impact come to money capacity and U.S economy credits on the market. All changes about money runoff and credit will affected direct that come to interest rates. Simply responding, if credit and money supply inadequate that give reason tense to everybody’s cost of borrow will be increased therefore interest rates must ascent, and in the opposite money supply and credit are over the demand then interest rate have to beat down the rates to encourage newly borrowers. From this concept, Fed has carried three main measures as an effective weapon for impact to following currency policy. First, when the market place action is extended, Fed consecutively to sell bills and to buy stock and treasury bonds and securities of government via fed banks. “Extended market place” means that counter-bid formality past securities trade Fed on the market is free, is not imposed and leave natural economy law that govern securities prices. Second, Whenever Fed decides want to lower interest rates, Fed banks will diligently purchase government’s securities in addition to open market and cash a mass insufflations and essential credit into reduction economy until who then interest rate s down up to desired level. Thirdly, Inverse its option above when want to increase interest rates, Fed banks will sell government’s securities and aspirate money capacity and credit. However, when rise sells, securities price is following downfall and corollary is rise increment interest rate.
Preferential interest rates resolution is Discount Rates where Fed allowed its members to obtain short-term loan overnight with a view to statute response must deposit 10 percent. All changes of Fed about this Discount rates will astringed come to federal fund interest rates in which loan house each other overnight also for collateral request response is aforementioned, because there must not who it is also possible to borrow Fed possession easily. It got to realize the differences and relations between fed funds rate and discount rate but the differ in nub is the discount rate often lower than fed funds rate where owing to natural economy law by its determination. Federal fund rates main is interest rate what Fed want to attain back of section meeting. Present are live in leveling 2.0 percent.
The relative values of the dollar and other currencies are determined by the supply and demand for each currency. The demand for dollar-denominated items can be thought of demand for goods services and the demand for capital goods like real estate and stocks and bonds. The threat of inflation can make dollar-denominated goods seem like they will not be as valuable in the future, making worth less now. This reduces the demand for dollar denominated capital goods. The value of the dollar will naturally fall until the supply and demand for it and the euro reach equilibrium...as the value of the dollar falls, US goods seem cheaper and the demand for US goods should increase. U.S dollar has a little impact of its revaluation when the lat meeting of FED on August 5, 2008 to keep it key interest rate on hold at 2.0 points acknowledgeable cloudy economy growth and inflation pressures. I think this is a smart decision making from Fed at this recession time. I would sure U.S economy are in deep depression by a lot other elements combined such as financial/lending crisis, mortgage and house sign market corruption, jobless rises over 4.5 percent annually and oil price. Therefore, we would set a priority, need not only to contain our economy inflation but to boost our economy growth of per capital GDP again above 3.0 percent yearly. US dollar still a key to global financial markets for other economy reverse, it still hold its title for world currency dominant. For the next ten years, its devaluation continually helps to shrink our trading deficits.
A U.S dollar continually its weakness by a few things U.S economy in facing as the Iraq
War coupled with the Government tax cuts pushed the US into a severe budget deficit,
which raises fears that the US will default on its debt or instead just increase the money?
supply to cover it, lowering the value of the dollar. The increasing price of oil (again over
the past few years, even if the last few weeks have bucked the trend) has increased the
US trade deficit, which also decreases the value of the dollar. Recession fears and the
credit crisis have prompted the US Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. Lower interest
rates give less incentive for people to maintain balances of USD, so they look to other
currencies. Askari and Krischene stated (2008) “Since 2002, a number of key indicators
have signaled rapid inflationary pressures, casting an ominous cloud over the US
economy: the US dollar has depreciated by about 75% relative to the euro, crude oil
prices have increased five fold, gold prices have increased threefold, and all commodities
prices have been rising at a rate approaching 25% per year.” (p.1)
The recent small recovery in the value of the dollar is based mostly on the expectation that the ECB and the Bank of England will soon have to take similar measures while the US will have to raise rates next three years or five to stave off inflation. Finally, the existence of the Euro, the US may be the world's largest economy for a single country, but the combined economies of the Euro-using countries are slightly bigger than the US economy. Instead of being the only game in town for currency reserves, the USD demand is now being split with the Euro.
“The Fed has been pursuing many objectives simultaneously: restoring housing prices so owners will keep thinking they are wealthy and continue to spend lavishly, maintaining stock indexes on a rising path, and preserving full employment; in the process, the Fed was minimizing the negative effects of inflationary pressures and risk of a falling dollar.”(2008)
Askari and Krischene
Try to think of fiscal responsibilities as those that involve government spending on social services, running agencies, military, and any other spending that our elected officials have approved. Monetary responsibilities deal with the stability of the dollar (in the US) and have to do with the management of the Central banking system, which is what the Federal Reserve is, the Fed. The Fed does not deal in political affairs but is largely independent, while the US treasury carries out the spending habits of our government.”
How Interest rates and monetary policy will effect to each citizen in daily life, well for starters, every time the Federal Reserve lowers the interest rate it is meant to encourage people and companies, and foreign countries to take out and/or refinance loans. this puts more money into the system and increases economic activity. Also, things like the economic stimulus package help marginally, but the government has to borrow money from other countries to finance this package, which increases our national debt. Taxpayer will be bear all the responsibility to pay it back in the next generations. This related to tax increasing each year from each single taxpayer. The US tax code also play a crucial role to the increasing of globalization of economic competition. U.S tax policy must create a convenient environment for foreign-based corporations, remembering U.S. Economy has an integral part of multinational corporations, its domestic success are conjoining from foreign activities. It is also a caution for US tax policy that would not impact the capacity and ability of U.S. multinational corporations to compete successfully around the world economy.
The past 25 years have been the best stock market for investors in U.S. history. The Dow Jones industrial average hit bottom on Aug. 12, 1982, at 776.9, while interest rates were at 15 percent. Since that date, the compounded rate of return from the last quarter of 1982 until this summer, circa 2007, has been 11.8 percent. Taking into account inflation, the rate of return has been 8.5 percent! This was the result of policy decisions in the 1980s, 90s and more recently - confirming the fact that lower tax rates on capital and labor, sound monetary policies, with open market initiatives and liberalized trade leads to stronger economic growth and rising values in equities. Despite several events from Y2K to 9/11, from Hurricane Katrina and the rising defense spending in the war on terror, the U.S. economy is the model for the world as more and more nations from Brazil and India to Russia, China, and Eastern Europe begin to emulate our entrepreneurial pro-growth economic ideas. Nowadays, the Global economy is certainly bigger and more vibrant than ever. I don't think America has quite adapted to its new place in that economy, though, nor is it ready to deal with the realities of it going forward. Truly, the effective tax rate on the wealthy dropped from 70% to 15%, since most of their income is from capital gains and dividends. When interest rates are high the aggregate demand in the economy will fall so that people stop buying goods or/and services. This means that consumers have less cash to spend on food, groceries, petrol, household items etc. This will be worse for items that are not needs but are want or luxuries. This might called deflation.
Americans continually facing the demand for goods- especially food, I am sure has
fallen. Prices are high, so I am sure the quantity demanded for goods has fallen. Gas
prices are rising too. I think that the demand for houses has fallen. Supply is higher than
demand- many more houses have been built than demand (more supply than consumer
demand). Also banks, etc have tightened up the ability for people to get loans, mortgages,
and all so that makes demand fall too. Government spending is high. With two wars, our
spending is pretty high. Plus, we are still spending a lot on social security and education
along with defense and health care system. Somewhere along the line, I think reform
needs to be made. According to the Matt and McClathy, “New York Sen. Hillary Clinton
vows that as President, she'd return the country to "fiscal responsibility,"(2007). The
General Accounting Office (GAO), if they have not already- needs to examine where we
are spending money. They also need to make reports on what we're spending well on and
what we're wasting money in. Unemployment has grown over the last year or so. I would
not say much on it. It has grown nonetheless. Even the FED cut interest rates to help
grow the economy and address the slow economy. However, they have not worked and
there's been a side effect. Because interest rates went down, inflation has gone up. Yet the
FED could not raise rates right now because that would kill some growth and slow the
economy more. The bottom line I would think US government have much better
monetary policy for the next three years and must engage the fiscal responsibly
immediately and seriously. Some people say that what’s happening now in the US
economy is similar to what occurred in the Japanese economy after its real estate bust. If
this comparison turns out to be accurate. Then US fed rate may stay close to zero for a
long, long time. The prolonged US recession will keep Fed Funds Rate frozen over the
next two years. If not the decline and in value of dollar combined with increased demand
for oil and other commodities from developing economies will increase inputs and price,
creating inflationary pressure. Moreover, declining value of dollar will increase demand
for US goods and will push employment upwards in which creates potential for upward
pressure on wages. Fed Funds rate will increase to compensation of inflationary pressure
and dampening effect on economy will be mitigated by increased demand for US goods
from cheaper dollar in the next five or ten years. Another study of Askari and Krichene
discovered, ” In sum, prudent monetary policy supported by selective federal guarantees
and programs are the medicine that the federal authorities should administer to the
markets now before more damage are done.”(2008)
Unites States of America federal reserve is a stiff essential division with respect to
U.S. economy in particular and of the entire world generally. This system plays a role as a
“Constabulary” with respect to the total America banking system and also namely as a
division that leading bodies proposes US policies in order to warrant a boost averagely
the U.S. economy growth and reduction jobless and containing its inflation and deflation.
In fact, Federal Reserve System act as a U.S Central Bank and there primary mission
namely “ sustained that boost economically, rate of unemployment reduction, free price
to keep dollar copper’s buying power and keep interest rates kinds proportion in level
average”. In short, it would be constructed steadily a banking system to support for a
healthy economy. To all developed economies, the most important key is not really to
boost its economy growth fast but to control and monitor its economy level not to “hot”
in which causes a national inflation. The sorrow experience from the primary causes an
economic crisis era in the year 1929 showed of the crisis, cum the downturns
economically owns to inflation elements outmatched range. Therefore U.S. Central
Bank monitor adjoin index omens about inflation to have accommodation measure very
carefully. However, because each once changes interest rates, only probable efficiency be
evinced from twelve months to later annual plant ought to the work of the economically
generally deep and broad wall small pagoda arduous and an event required extremeness
from Fed Chairman and experts in committee. According to Kimberly Amadeo (2007),
“The FOMC changes the federal funds rate to control inflation while maintaining healthy economic growth. As difficult as these sounds, it is even harder when you realize it can take 12-18 months for the effect of the change to percolate throughout the entire economy. To maintain the expertise necessary to plan that far ahead, the Fed has become the nation’s expert in forecasting the economy.” (p.1). Sometime, increasing interest
rates excessively versus economically better in healthy way is to damper it’s economic
growth. Insisting the action of the main benefit U.S Fed system in order to serve the U.S.
economy. All efficiencies with respect to just U.S. economy’s indirect aftermath world
economy. This Fed model testified certain success event ought to be applied on most of
top developed countries.



Preferences

Lynn S. Fox, Chair, Scott G. Alvarez, Sandra Braunstein, Marianne M. Emerson, Jennifer J. Johnson, Karen H. Johnson, Stephen R. Malphrus, Vincent R. Reinhart, Louise L. Roseman, Richard Spillenkothen, and David J. Stockton: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2005). The Federal Reserve System Purposes & Functions. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System on behalf of the Federal Reserve System
Liu, H. C. K. (2008, June 18). Retrieved August 15, 2008, from The Strong Dollar Policy Web site: http://www.atimes.com/
Kennon, Joshua (2005). Retrieved June 30, 2005, from How They Are Determined and
How They Affect Your Portfolio

Web site: http://www.about.com/
Amadeo, Kimberly (2007).Retrieved October 10, 2007, from

The Federal Funds Rate and How It Works Web site: http://www.about.com/
Askari, H., & Krichene, N. (2008, April 18). Fed fails to learn inflation lesson. Retrieved from Fed Fails to Learn Inflation Lesson Web site: http://www.atimes.com/
Matt Stearns and McClatchy Newspapers. (2007, November 27) Retrieved from http://www.mcclatchydc.com/182.Clinton's 'fiscal responsibility' a sham
http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/2007monetary.htm

World and USA Newsletter! Oct 19,2008

These days, World and USA have to face a serious problems about climate changes and other issues such as economy downturns, inflation, high energing demand, corruption and other unstable political regimes. Especially, the conflict was going on between Campochia and Thai , Russia and Geogia and else where.
In the United State, as a economic and military supperpower nation has been shrinking its postiion. It might face a seious loss to other nation in the next century if US has not take a deep and wide reforms from all goverment levels and policies. US policy makers and politicians have to realize its urgency and should put our country's interests in the first place. " Country First"
KP

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While I am writing this paper, the US financial industry was too deep in problem, most of the biggest lending corporations have to fight for surviving in this extremely difficult time. This crisis has been spilled over more broadly on other areas, in both national and international. The most crises have been occurred in the modern time after the great depression in 1930s and Asia financial one during 1990s. Many predicts and expects from the efforts of federal government and US Central Bank, by lowering the fed funds rate and money supply-pumping. If the applying the lower fed funds rate tool then will boost the rising inflation but if not then keep the slow economy goes nowhere. It does not mean World-wide economy will be in depression but at least will leads to the slowdown growth in many other economies in the following months. Firstly, it is clearly that the US consumer goods spending will be decreasing, following the World’s GDP attenuation. The second matter is the weaker US dollar currency will affect to countries depending on the US market. If the Federal Reserve continues to cut interest rates to stimulate its economic market, but it may be a cause to devaluate its currency to other Euro, Japan and China dollars to create a trigger United State’s export but again it be nightmare with respect to exporters Germany, Japan and Korea, and China where these economies have deeply depend into US market high-rolling export. Third, US is not only nation been faced with the bubble housing and financial crisis markets in the last years. This phenomenon also has been occurred at countries from Asia to Europe because globalization has become a reality in the past decades. More and more we are moving towards connection in one giant, global economy-one market. World also has been facing with the imbalance of population growth among developed countries like US, Japan and developing countries as China and Brazil. As regards to the real data and statistics, it showed that most of poor economies as undeveloped and developing countries have a higher country risk, higher inflation, higher dependence on national natural resources, higher population lives under poverty line and higher GDP economic growth but have a lower GDP per capita, lower life expectation at birth, lower productivity, less technology and educational system than rich or developed countries.Finally, the most important key is now for saving the downturns of the World and US economies by know how to create and to remain a credible and healthy investment environment in which most of investors are waiting for it. The trusty has been detracted since last many corruptions. The restoration of public’s trust in business activity is a must immediately. Fiduciary crisis is under liquidity datum level caused stating buckled up and credit at Wall Street. This status also was blazing all over other financial markets in the World. Realizing that it is a flawless of domino economic theory in which national economies have been drawing along into a circle of it. This also another past decade experienced lesson likes Japan ones in 1990s. US need not only its economic and financial, fiscal reforms but US also need aboard economic partners to contribute their parts in saving US economy. US administration and economists have to realize it as a huge hole in financial crisis to find decisive solution for solving. This is not a simple issue as one or just two failure- corporations but a reflection to the whole agitated financial industry, the failure of the monetary and fiscal policies. US Central Banks itself were in difficulties could save World Economy from economic depression status’s negative impacts in the America. Presently, the capability of US Central Bank in using currency and interest rate tool to stimulate its economy is retrenched than before. World has to find best equation that can solve a thorny problem with the two answers; rising inflation and slow economic growth. The World and US’s inflation is still remains as an unsolved math.

One Price Theory

One Price Theory

This is a theory that supports the law of one price. The theory says that the price of one product should be the same across countries. So, the exchange rates should adjust to reflect this 'one-price' scenario. Otherwise, international arbitrage could incur until exchange rates adjust and the law of one price holds.
For example, if Burger King Sandwich costs 2 euro in France, and the same sandwich 100 Thai baht in Thailand, then the exchange rate should be 50 baht per euro. If baht is depreciated in relative to euro (the exchange rate is more than 50 baht per euro), then Some French people will not buy any Sandwich from France. Rather, they will import Sandwich from Thailand (because Thai sandwich are cheaper) and resell in France to get immediate gains. Therefore, French will demand more Thai baht to purchase Sandwich from Thailand. More demand for Baht currency would result in appreciation of Thai baht... The exchange rates would then adjust until international arbitrage is not profitable. It is a notice that the PPP theory assumes no taxes, no transportation expenses, no transportation risks… PPP holds better for high- inflation countries.
It states that “theory that the interest rate differential between two countries is equal to the differential between the forward exchange rate and the spot exchange rate. Interest rate parity plays an essential role in foreign exchange markets, connecting interest rates, spot exchange rates and foreign exchange rates.”
In fact, the fundamental aspect of Interest Rate Parity (IRP) is very similar to Purchasing Power Parity which applies the direct exchange rate to the value of a commodity in some countries in order to see what the price should be in dollars in a frictionless world. If the prices in the United States rise faster than those in other countries then the interest rate parity must not hold ( higher inflation) because of the reason given above, will mean the US interest rate has to rise to keep foreign investments following in US market as the prevailing interest parity is lost.
IRP holds better under rational expectations of agents, and PPP assumptions does not allow even temporary volatility/deviations from price level equilibriums (and also it explains only long-run but doesn't fits short-run).

If we look at exchange rate for its following as Nominal exchange rate of anther nation and the host nation, CPI, and PPI:The inclusion of the CPI and PPI in exchange rates are given on a quarterly basis and thus only change every quarter. The hardest hitting affects of exchange rate change is that of demand and supply of the currency in question, which leads to CPI and PPI changes, which is reflected in the next quarter. Regional inflation differentials lead to a competition between the real interest rate and wealth channels on the one hand and the real exchange rate channel on the other hand in the transmission of regional shocks. This may have implications for the length and vehemence of regional business cycles.Some studies suggest that Inflation persistence continues to be the most important driver of inflation differentials, though it no longer generates explosive oscillations. A forward-looking behavior of output tends to stabilize the model. The second formulation for the output gap equation is a mixed backward- and forward-looking specification, with parameters restricted to sum to unity. Here, inflation differentials become very sensitive to the degree of output persistence within the confidence range. However, because inflationary measures have a lag, due to reporting periods, where as exchange rates are constantly changing by the second, we can see how exchange rates are more stock because quite simply, we can see the change occurring instantly where as inflation differentials take time to computer and analyses.
Into the international financial system the short-term rate of interest is unlikely to be an efficient or even a particularly good predictor of inflation. It is argued that the rate of interest in these countries is much more likely to reflect foreign influences first and inflation expectation second and hence that the rate of interest may not efficiently embody all information relevant to the future inflation rate.

The Hechscher-Ohlin theory of comparative advantage

International economic is in countries with an economically middle interdependence research applied economics specialty. Many well-known economics pundit such as Adam Smiths, David Ricardo, John Stuart Mill, Alfred Marshall, John Maynard Keynes, and Paul A. Samuelson and Eli Heckscher, Bertil Ohlin. Many economists sent out different model to predict international trade exchange fabric and analyst affected of business policies, for examples like tariff policy, trading policy or exchange currency policy for each national economy. The success factors essential to pertain to of a product phyla already to well-known scientists the world approached in theoretical model about value string comparative advantage, country competitive advantage. In this paper, I will dig deeper in this Hechscher-Ohlin Model as an origin of ideas, the theory of interregional exchange and trade Ohlin. According to E.Heckscher (1949), “First developed by Eli Heckscher (1879-1952) and later developed by fellow Swedish economist Bertil Ohlin (1899-1979) in 1933, Heckscher-Ohlin trade theory is a theory to explain the existence and pattern of international trade based on a comparative cost advantage between countries producing different goods. Heckscher and Ohlin state that this advantage exists because of the relative resource endowments of the countries trading.(E.Hechscher).
According to Turan Subasat (2008), “ The Heckscher-Ohlin theory of comparative advantage was produced as an alternative to the Ricardian model and had an ideological mission: the elimination of the labor theory of value and the incorporation of the neoclassical price mechanism into international trade theory. This article first questions the empirical validity of the Heckscher-Ohlin model and argues that most of the empirical work aimed at proving the validity of the model by focusing on its power to predict trade patterns is irrelevant.”

There are theories of international trade and models of economy but the Ricardo model in which Comparative advantage research centralized Ricardo model, a concept is accounted that been most important in theoretically international trade. Model Heckscher- Ohlin is built stands for basic model about comparative advantage of Ricardo. Although it is more sophisticated and correctly presumptive able, it still has idealization. To dropping the value of the labor theory and append Neoclassicism mechanism to international trade theory. Model Hechscher- Ohlin reason international trade fabric is decide by force source elements middle disparity. It predicts that a country will take advantage of production and exports upon its nation available resources and imports in using many its factors in that country has less. According to Richard, “ Bertil Ohlin’s formal contribution to economics, as it appears in his English languages writings of the memoirs is dominated by the model of international trade which he developed and elaborated on the basic of earlier insights of Eli Hechscher.” In fact, while Ohlin attended at Stockholm on the fall 1920, he have influenced and absorbed by Heckscher international trade ideas. Later 1920, Ohlin have combines the both ideas from his professor in Berlin, Mr. Gustav Cassel in which express neoclassical general equilibrium for a single economy and Heckscher, a neoclassical international trade theory. To become of one perfectly idea from Ohlin promoted that international equilibrium with two trading countries should be extended from Cassel ‘ idea where he got a main reason from Heckscher trade theorem. First, The Heckscher-Ohlin theorem is one of the four critical theorems of the Heckscher-Ohlin model. It states: “ A capital-abundant country will export the capital-intensive good, while the labor-abundant country will export-intensive good. The critical assumption of the model Heckscher-Ohlin model is that the two countries are identical, except for the difference in resource endowments.” Second, it mentions to factor- price equalization in which an approach ensuring postulate. Heckscher-Ohlin model about international trade consider wherewith a number of assumption is limitative, a free commerce is prefect replacement give production factor to move and will work acquaintance level leveling give evenness to any of a production factors on a world scale, for example such as wage level of all of country rights. Favorably about competing price-foundation give commence word to businesslike objective. This theory about competitive advantage: as for example rank two double-side countries, meridian reached profit when products a exporting country land has more love competitiveness price be in country than oversea when bandy commercially with respected to another country that has inland higher oversea competitive price. Namely what competitive advantage: have two theoretically about competitive advantage, there is a recently theory and the David Ricardo traditional theory that economist Scandinavian theory, Heckscher and Ohlin. Both people equilateral that base upon a series of pustules is thereinafter illustrative.
Comparative advantage is a comparison concept economically among product expense ratio of goods A of country X conjugate world’s average cost, with product expense ratio if goods B of country X world’s average cost division. Author of the comparative advantages (Ricardo, Heckscher, Ohlin, Samuelson) proved each country there will benefit from product kind in production specialization concernment that those country has comparative advantage. Preach reasoning of global commerce evidence” comparative advantage” later that was practically audited calculated rightly and used made underpinning. As many this years, world organizers as IMF, WB use this indicator as computing services, make underpinning that give product phyla for developing countries and as a encouraging countries to develop its policy. Finally, this is a model as a combined from other ideas as an assumption of perfect competition in all markets.